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As we step into the new year, the real estate market remains a focal point of interest for many individuals and investors. Anticipating trends and understanding market dynamics can be crucial for those looking to buy or sell a home. In this blog post, we will delve into the forecast provided by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) Economics and explore what the crystal ball reveals for home sales in the first half of 2024.
It is looking like 2024 will be a growth year for the residential market across the REBGV areas. Last year, there was concern over the state of economic growth and while this still remains a fear for many, the new year ushers in hope. Fundamental factors such as household formation, population growth and employment growth remain strong.
That being noted, a crucial element is noticeably absent as of the current publication — extremely low mortgage rates.
What does this mean for sellers:
Who is the main player that we are looking at: Interest rates.
In 2024, Interest rates are the main wildcard for sales activity. If rates are reduced due to economic growth deceleration then a lower policy rate could bring more buyers into the active market space. If rates remain high then this could cause a dampening effect on sales, similar to 2023. However, REBGV’s forecast favours at least a 0.5 per cent reduction in the Bank of Canada’s policy rate in 2024 which would increase sales activity.
For the Buyers:
Now to the prediction that we are really searching for: Can I afford to buy a home in 2024?
Unfortunately, in 2023 we saw near-record- low inventory levels across all REBGV regions which caused prices to increase. This trend will continue to support price increases in 2024. Those trying to get into the real estate market still exceed the number of homes for sale. Whilst the BC NDP government recently announced a raft of measures to boost the supply of new homes built in the next decade, this will not have any significant immediate impact on your ability to buy a home in 2024.
If you do buy a home this year, what will it cost you? Last year the average price was $1.24m and it is expected to increase modestly because of the supply-constrained home buying environment.
So while the crystal ball may not be giving us the answers we are currently looking for, we should still hold optimism for the coming year as we move into an improving housing market with policies slowly being instituted to help both sellers and buyers alike. Whether you're a prospective homebuyer, seller, or investor, we are glad you are here staying informed about the latest market insights because in the end that is the key to making well-informed real estate decisions.
The full report is on our Real Estate Guides page
The article is sourced from the REBGV Report and all efforts have been made to prepare this information but all details are subject to verification and is not guaranteed. Neither RE/MAX CITY, Pinpoint Listings Marketing Group and all team members, and REBGV does not guarantee the accuracy of the info provided. This article is not professional advice.
About REBGV Economics
Headed by Andrew Lis, Director, Economics and Data Analytics, REBGV’s Economics team focuses on delivering timely insights to members and the public through the provision of market analyses, forecasts, presentations, and other analytical products.
About this forecast
REBGV prepares an annual high-level residential market forecast twice per year, with release dates at the start of the first half (H1) and second half (H2) of the year, respectively. The initial (H1) forecast is updated in July/August (H2) to factor in the relative strength of spring market activity, as well as other economic factors that may have evolved since the initial forecast.
*Editor’s Note: Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver is an association representing more than 15,000 REALTORS® and their companies. The Board provides a variety of member services, including the Multiple Listing Service®. For more information on real estate, statistics, and buying or selling a home, contact a PLMG Advisor.
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